:Product: 20030708RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jul 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar acitivity was low.  Region 397 (N12W65) produced
several C-class flares, the highest being a C2.3/Sf at 08/0230Z.
Region 400 (N05W24) produced a C1.5 at 08/0251Z, and Region 402
(S12W58) produced two C-class flares, a C5.2/1f at 08/0730Z and a
C3.2/Sf at 08/1626Z.  A large filament in the northwest quadrant
erupted in parts: a 23-degree section (N30W22) early in the period
and a 21-degree section (N38W38) at 08/1500Z.  Region 397 decreased
in size and magnetic complexity, to a beta-gamma configuration.
Region 402 grew rapidly in size over the period.  No new regions
were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 397 has potential to produce M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period,
with isolated active to minor storm conditions on day three due to
increased wind speeds from a coronal hole rotating into geoeffective
position.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Jul 131
Predicted   09 Jul-11 Jul  140/135/135
90 Day Mean        08 Jul 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul  009/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul  009/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul  012/010-010/010-020/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/40
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    02/02/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/50
Minor storm           15/15/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/10