:Product: 20030709RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jul 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 400 (N05W37)
produced two C-class flares, a C1.0 at 08/2135Z, and a C2.4/Sf at
09/1446Z.  Region 397 (N14W76) produced several C-class flares, the
largest being a C5.8/Sf at 09/1637Z.  No significant change was
observed in any active region except for Region 402, which grew in
magnetic complexity to a beta-gamma configuration.  No new regions
were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low,
with isolated chance of M-class flares from Regions 397, 400, or
402.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active to minor
storm conditions possible on days two and three due to elevated
solar wind speeds as a coronal hole rotates into geoeffective
position.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
Class M    45/45/40
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jul 126
Predicted   10 Jul-12 Jul  135/135/125
90 Day Mean        09 Jul 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul  003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul  010/010-020/025-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/40/35
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/50/50
Minor storm           05/25/25
Major-severe storm    05/10/10