:Product: 20030710RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jul 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  Region 397 (N12W87)
produced two M-class flares, an M2.0 at 09/2238Z, and an M3.6 at
10/1412Z with an associated Type II radio sweep.  Region 397 appears
to be decaying as it passes the west limb.  No new regions were
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate, with a chance of isolated M-class flares from Regions
397 or 400.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels.  The
greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active to minor
storm conditions on days one and two due to elevated solar wind
speeds as a coronal hole rotates into geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
Class M    50/45/40
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Jul 123
Predicted   11 Jul-13 Jul  130/125/120
90 Day Mean        10 Jul 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul  003/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul  006/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul  020/025-015/020-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/25
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/50/30
Minor storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/05