:Product: 20030712RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jul 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  A number of C-class
flares, as well as an M1.4/Sf at 12/1906UTC (with an associated Type
II radio sweep) erupted from an area on the east limb at N15.  This
active region has not yet been numbered.  Several large filaments in
the northwest and southwest quadrants erupted early in the period.
No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  The active region on the east limb at N15 will most
likely continue to produce C and M-class flare activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels.  The
increased activity is most likely due to the effects of high speed
solar wind stream from a coronal hole rotating into geoeffective
position.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels.  Isolated major storm
conditions may occur on day two as a result of transient passage
from the M3.6 x-ray flare that occurred on 10 July.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Jul 122
Predicted   13 Jul-15 Jul  125/120/120
90 Day Mean        12 Jul 125
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul  036/046
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul  035/048
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul  024/025-030/040-024/024
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/45/35
Minor storm           20/30/20
Major-severe storm    10/15/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/35/45
Minor storm           30/40/30
Major-severe storm    15/25/20