:Product: 20030713RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jul 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Today's activity consisted of a
few, low-level C-class subflares. Newly assigned Region 409 (N16E66)
rotated more fully into view today and was one of the most active
regions. This group is currently the largest on the disk and was the
source of recent flare activity observed on and near the northeast
limb during the last couple of days. Region 401 (S10W31) showed some
development of new spots in the central part of the group but was
stable and quiet. Two additional regions were assigned today: Region
408 (N13E23), a small newly emerged group, and Region 410 (S13E63),
also a small group that has just rotated into view. A thirteen
degree filament located near N26W08 disappeared between 0100-0900
UTC. Post-eruption arcades were visible in SXI and EIT-195 images.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a chance for an isolated M-class event over
the next three days, with Regions 409 and 401 the most likely
sources.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active during the past 24
hours. Solar wind speeds remain somewhat elevated today (around
500-600 km/s), but are lower than yesterday and show an overall
declining trend. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high
levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active over the next three days. Some
persistence of today's activity is expected to linger into tomorrow.
It is possible that transient flow may arrive sometime during the
next three days from the M3 flare of 10 July or from any of the
recent filament eruptions. However, ACE EPAM data do not indicate
the presence of a strong interplanetary shock at this time, making
transient drivers seem less probable than previously. The onset of
effects from another high speed wind stream are expected on day two
or day three as a new coronal hole will be rotating into favorable
position.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jul 127
Predicted   14 Jul-16 Jul  130/130/130
90 Day Mean        13 Jul 125
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul  025/046
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul  015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul  020/020-020/030-020/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    15/15/15