:Product: 20030714RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jul 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 409 (N15E55)
produced several C-class events through the period.  The largest was
a C8 flare at 14/0120 UTC which was optically correlated with the
SXI imagery.  This region has grown in white light area and sunspot
count and exhibits a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominately low.  Region 409 has the potential to produce an
isolated M-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active.  The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be primarily unsettled to active through the period.
Isolated minor storm conditions are possible with the passage of a
coronal hole high speed wind stream
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jul 127
Predicted   15 Jul-17 Jul  130/130/125
90 Day Mean        14 Jul 125
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul  009/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul  018/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul  020/025-020/025-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/25
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    15/15/15