:Product: 20030717RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jul 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 198 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jul 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Today's activity consisted of
numerous C-class flares. The largest of these was a C9/1n at 0823
UTC from Region 412 (N16E05), which was also accompanied by type II
and type IV radio sweeps. Region 412 has shown steady growth with
the emergence of new magnetic flux during the past 24 hours. Region
410 (S12E12) also showed steady growth and was the only other source
for C-class flares. Region 410 has some mixed magnetic polarities
and could develop a delta magnetic configuration. Region 409
(N16E27) continues to be the largest region on the disk but
continues to show decline and simplification. New Region 414
(S02E71) rotated into view today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low but there is a chance for an isolated M-class event over
the next three days, with regions 409, 410, and 412 the most likely
sources.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels
during the past 24 hours. Today's solar wind continues to show the
presence of a high-speed coronal hole solar wind stream. The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24
hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with a few isolated active periods
for the next two days. Unsettled to active levels are expected for
the third day. The increase on day three may occur as a possible
response to activity associated with today's C9 flare event.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Jul 139
Predicted   18 Jul-20 Jul  140/135/140
90 Day Mean        17 Jul 126
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jul  023/048
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jul  020/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul  015/012-015/015-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/45/45
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10