:Product: 20030718RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jul 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 199 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jul 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 410 (S11W01)
produced two consecutive C5 flares at 17/2356Z and 18/0005Z.  Region
410 continues to increase in area coverage and magnetic complexity.
Region 412 (N17W06) exhibited growth in area and magnetic
complexity, developing a beta-gamma magnetic configuration due to
mixing polarities in the trailing spots.  Region 409 (N15E05)
continued its gradual decay and simplified to a beta magnetic
configuration.  New Region 414 (S02E58) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Regions 410, and 412 have the potential for M-class
activity over the next three days.  Region 409 has the potential for
M-class activity on day one.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active.  Active conditions
were observed early in the period.  Solar wind speed decreased from
600 km/s to 500 km/s around 18/0700Z and remained at 500 km/s for
the remainder of the day.  This decrease marks the end of the
coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.  Isolated active
conditions are possible during night time hours.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Jul 140
Predicted   19 Jul-21 Jul  135/140/140
90 Day Mean        18 Jul 127
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jul  014/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jul  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul  015/015-015/015-012/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/25
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05