:Product: 20030719RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jul 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Regions 410 (S12W13) and 412
(N16W20) produced several low C-class flares over the past 24 hours.
Region 410 continues to develop at a considerable pace in both size
and magnetic complexity. Region 412 is developing at a slower rate,
but also has significant complexity in a compact spot group. New
Region 415 (N13E30) was numbered today and produced a small C-class
flare at 19/1734Z. Region 409 (N15W08) continues to simplify and
decay. Remaining regions were stable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is a good chance for M-class activity from
Regions 410 and 412.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active with isolated
minor storm periods during local nighttime hours. Solar wind speed
began a gradual rise from near 500 km/s midway through the period to
approximately 650 km/s by the end of the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly unsettled to active periods through
day one with isolated minor storm periods possible. Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on days two and three with isolated
active periods likely.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jul 146
Predicted   20 Jul-22 Jul  150/155/155
90 Day Mean        19 Jul 127
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul  011/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul  020/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul  015/015-012/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/35/35
Minor storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05