:Product: 20030720RSGA.txt :Issued: 2003 Jul 20 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 201 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jul 2003 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Frequent C-class activity occurred, predominantly from developing Region 410 (S12W26). This region continues to grow and now exhibits a delta configuration near the central portion of the region. Growth in Region 412 (N16W34) has slowed, but a moderately complex Beta-Gamma configuration persist. New Region 417 (S22W36) emerged quickly over the past 24 hours and produced occasional C-class flares. New Regions 416 (S09W42) and 418 (S05W08) were also numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 410 has the potential to produce M-class activity. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. A high speed solar wind stream with speeds exceeding 700 km/s is responsible for this disturbance. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels this period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm periods during local nighttime hours. III. Event Probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul Class M 50/50/50 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 20 Jul 157 Predicted 21 Jul-23 Jul 160/165/165 90 Day Mean 20 Jul 127 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jul 020/026 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jul 020/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul 015/020-012/015-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/30/30 Minor storm 20/15/15 Major-severe storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 40/35/35 Minor storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 10/05/05