:Product: 20030721RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jul 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. The multiple C-class flare
activity from Region 410 (S12W40) slowed down considerably during
the latter half of this period. This large beta-gamma region is
showing some decay. The central portion of the region is starting to
fragment and the delta configuration no longer exist. Region 417
(S21W49) developed in both size and area and produced occasional
minor C-class subflares. A 16 degree, NE-SW filament erupted from
near disk center at around 21/0900Z. Faint ejecta was observed on
LASCO imagery, but the event is not likely to be geoeffective. The
remaining regions were uneventful.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a small chance for an M-class flare from Region 410.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed was near
600 km/s early in the period, which accounted for the active
periods. Speed declined to near 450 km/s by the end of the period.
The field responded to the declining solar wind speed by returning
to mostly quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reach high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods over the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
Class M    40/40/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Jul 156
Predicted   22 Jul-24 Jul  155/155/155
90 Day Mean        21 Jul 128
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul  016/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jul  012/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul  010/015-010/012-012/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05