:Product: 20030722RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jul 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. There were several minor
C-class flares this period from developing Region 417 (S21W64),
including a C5/1f at 22/0718Z. This region exhibited moderate growth
during the period, in both size and magnetic complexity.  Previously
active Region 410 (S13W53) maintains its considerable size, but has
simplified over the past 24-36 hours. Minor C-class flares were also
observed in Regions 409 (N16W48), and 412 (N16W59).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance for a low M-class flare, most likely from
Region 417.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar
wind speeds were steady at approximately 450 km/s.  The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
Class M    40/35/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Jul 153
Predicted   23 Jul-25 Jul  150/145/135
90 Day Mean        22 Jul 128
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul  008/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jul  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul  010/012-012/012-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/30
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/40
Minor storm           10/10/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/10