:Product: 20030723RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jul 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jul 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 417 (S22W76)
produced several C-class events during the period.  This region
continues to exhibit a beta gamma magnetic configuration.  Region
410 (S13W66) is still the largest region on the visible disk but
continues to decay slightly in sunspot count and area coverage.  A
new region was numbered today as Region 419 (N10E62).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 417 has the potential to produce an isolated M-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels.  Solar wind
data indicates a possible transient disturbance which brought the
speed up gradually through the period from a background of around
450 km/s to a peak of 523 km/s at 23/1544 UTC.  This was also
accompanied with a southward turning of Bz at 23/1404 UTC.  The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately at quit to unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
Class M    35/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Jul 144
Predicted   24 Jul-26 Jul  140/135/135
90 Day Mean        23 Jul 128
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jul  005/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jul  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul  012/012-012/012-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/30
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/35
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05