:Product: 20030724RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jul 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 417 (S22W91) continued
to produce several C-class events during the period.  There was an
observed Type II radio sweep associated with a C1 at 24/0249 UTC.
This seems to be from Region 417 which was optically correlated with
the SXI imagery.  Region 410 (S13W79) continues to decay but
maintains a little of its magnetic complexity and is a beta gamma
group today.  A new region emerged on the disk toady and was
numbered as Region 420 (N11E79).  This is most likely the return of
old Region 397 which produced several M-class events during its last
rotation.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
An isolated M-class event is possible from Region 410.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled for the next three
days.
III.  Event Probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
Class M    25/20/15
Class X    05/05/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jul 125
Predicted   25 Jul-27 Jul  120/125/125
90 Day Mean        24 Jul 128
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jul  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul  012/012-015/015-012/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/25
Minor storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/35/30
Minor storm           10/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05