:Product: 20030725RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jul 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 206 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jul 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  The only event of the
period was a long duration C1 flare observed at 25/1719 UTC.  This
event was not correlated optically, however, activity near the east
limb may be a possible source.  All regions on the visible disk are
currently stable or showing decay.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods for
26 July.  A recurrent coronal hole should influence activity on 27
and 28 July.  Conditions are expected to be at unsettled to active
levels with isolated periods of minor storm conditions possible.
III.  Event Probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Jul 112
Predicted   26 Jul-28 Jul  110/110/120
90 Day Mean        25 Jul 127
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jul  006/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jul  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jul-28 Jul  015/015-015/020-020/030
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/30
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/35/45
Minor storm           10/15/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/15