:Product: 20030726RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jul 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Regions remain quiet and
stable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm conditions.  Solar
wind speeds began to increase today after 26/1830 UTC from around
400 km/s to above 560 km/s, with a sustained southward Bz.  The
probable source of this high speed stream is a E-W oriented coronal
hole which is now rotating into a geoeffective location.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with periods of minor
storm conditions.  Effects of the high speed solar wind should
persist through the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
Class M    20/20/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Jul 103
Predicted   27 Jul-29 Jul  105/110/120
90 Day Mean        26 Jul 127
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul  008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jul  020/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul  020/030-020/030-020/030
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/45/45
Minor storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    15/15/15