:Product: 20030727RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jul 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 208 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jul 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  Active regions
were quiescent through the period.  Newly numbered Region 421
(S08E77) remains too close to the east limb for a detailed analysis
of its complexity.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
predominantly very low levels.  Based on SXI imagery Region 421 may
have the potential to produce C-class flares, pending further
analysis, as it has yet to fully rotate onto the visible disk.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels.  A
recurrent high speed coronal hole stream and a sustained southward
Bz are believed responsible for the elevated activity.  The solar
wind speed exceeded 800 km/s at approximately 27/0600Z.  NASA/ACE
data also indicates a possible transient passage very early in the
period.  The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous
orbit reached moderate levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels.
Isolated minor storm conditions are possible at both mid and high
latitudes due to the effects of the high speed solar wind for days
one and two.  Day three should see a decrease in the elevated solar
wind speeds and the associated effects.
III.  Event Probabilities 28 Jul-30 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Jul 102
Predicted   28 Jul-30 Jul  110/115/115
90 Day Mean        27 Jul 126
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jul  020/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jul  020/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul  020/030-020/030-012/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jul-30 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/25
Minor storm           25/25/10
Major-severe storm    10/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/35
Minor storm           35/35/30
Major-severe storm    20/20/15