:Product: 20030728RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jul 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 209 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jul 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to low levels.  Region 421
(S08E67) has shown significant growth over the period and has begun
to produce B and C-class flares.  A weak gamma magnetic structure
has become evident in the central portion of the region. Newly
numbered Region 422 (N14W41) appears to be a fully developed region
(possibly the return of old Region 400) and has also produced B and
C-class flares today.  This region may have a fair degree of
magnetic complexity, but it is currently too close to the east limb
for a comprehensive analysis.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  Regions 421 and 422 may both have the potential to
produce an isolated low level M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels.  A
recurrent high speed coronal hole stream is believed to be
responsible for the elevated conditions.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels.
Isolated minor storm conditions are expected throughout the interval
due to high speed solar wind effects.
III.  Event Probabilities 29 Jul-31 Jul
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Jul 103
Predicted   29 Jul-31 Jul  110/115/120
90 Day Mean        28 Jul 126
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jul  016/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jul  018/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jul-31 Jul  020/025-015/025-020/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jul-31 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/40
Minor storm           20/10/20
Major-severe storm    10/05/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/45/40
Minor storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    15/15/10