:Product: 20030729RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jul 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 210 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jul 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to moderate levels.  Region
421 (S08E54) produced an impulsive M1.3/1f flare at 29/0139Z.  There
appears to be a weak gamma magnetic structure in the trailing
portion of the spot cluster and there was little apparent change to
the penumbral structure during the period.  Region 422 (N14W54)
steadied in growth since yesterday and was limited to minor B and
C-class flares today.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  Region 421 has the potential to produce an isolated
M-class flare
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly active to minor storm
levels.  A period of major storm conditions were observed at the
Boulder magnetometer between 29/0300 and 0600Z.  The elevated
activity is in response to a recurrent coronal hole high speed solar
wind stream that has been ranging between 750 and 800 km/s
throughout the day.  The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly active levels through the first two
days of the forecast period due to recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream effects.  Occasional minor storm conditions are expected and
isolated major storm episodes may also be possible due to the
elevated solar wind speeds.  Day three should see a decrease to
unsettled to active conditions with isolated minor storm intervals
possible at night side locations.
III.  Event Probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Jul 100
Predicted   30 Jul-01 Aug  100/105/105
90 Day Mean        29 Jul 125
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jul  015/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jul  025/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug  020/025-020/020-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/25
Minor storm           20/20/10
Major-severe storm    10/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/45/40
Minor storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    15/10/10