:Product: 20030730RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jul 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 211 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jul 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels.  Region 422
(N14W67) produced the largest flare of the period, an M2.5/1b flare
that occurred at 30/0410Z.  A Tenflare and several discrete radio
bursts were associated with the event.  There were no observed Type
II radio sweeps and LASCO imagery doesn't depict a resulting CME.
There appears to have been some decay in complexity to this region
overnight and the gamma magnetic structure is no longer evident,
although the majority of the flare activity came from this region
during the period.  Region 421 (S08E41) produced a single event
today, a B9.1 x-ray flare that occurred at 30/1014Z.  There was some
penumbral loss in spot group and little flare production today, but
the weak gamma magnetic structure remains intact.  No new regions
were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  Regions 421 and 422 both have a chance of
producing further isolated M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels.  A
recurrent high speed coronal hole stream remains geoeffective.  The
greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly active levels throughout the
forecast period. Nighttime sectors may experience isolated minor
storm conditions through the first two days of the interval.  The
high speed stream should be in the waning phase by the end of day
three.
III.  Event Probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Jul 099
Predicted   31 Jul-02 Aug  100/100/095
90 Day Mean        30 Jul 125
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jul  024/036
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jul  020/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug  020/025-015/020-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/25
Minor storm           20/10/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/35/35
Minor storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10