:Product: 20030731RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jul 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at very low levels. Flare
activity was limited to several B-class events that were attributed
to Region 422 (N14W80). Region 423 (S19W03) was newly numbered
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly active to minor storm
levels.  The recurrent high speed coronal hole stream continues to
be geoeffective.  The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels for the first two days
of the forecast period.  Minor storm conditions are possible during
nighttime for the first day of the interval.  Day three should see a
decrease to quiet to unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Jul 102
Predicted   01 Aug-03 Aug  105/110/115
90 Day Mean        31 Jul 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul  024/029
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jul  024/029
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug  020/025-015/020-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/25
Minor storm           20/10/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/35/25
Minor storm           25/20/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/05