:Product: 20030801RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Aug 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  A new Region 424 (S18E77)
has been single-handedly responsible for a long series of C-class
x-ray flares since it first appeared as a prominence on the
East-limb on July 31st at approximately 2200 UTC.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
There's a slight chance for an M-class flare from Region 424
(S18E77), but overall the disk will be relatively inactive.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels.  A
large polar-connected coronal hole which has maintained a high-speed
solar wind stream, combined with a series of periods where the
interplanetary magnetic field has been oriented Southward,
maintaining elevated activity.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next 24
hours.  The coronal hole which has generated the current activity
will pass beyond geoeffective range by the end of tomorrow, and the
geomagnetic field should settle to quiet to unsettled levels for
days two and three.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Aug 107
Predicted   02 Aug-04 Aug  110/115/115
90 Day Mean        01 Aug 123
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul  022/032
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Aug  025/034
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug  020/025-012/015-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/25
Minor storm           20/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/25/25
Minor storm           20/10/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/05