:Product: 20030803RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Aug 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low-moderate.  Region 424
(S18E52) continues to generate minor C-class flare activity, and
produced an impulsive M1.3 x-ray flare at 02/2354 UTC.  A new Region
427 (N04W16) has grown quickly over the last 24 hours, but remains
relatively inactive.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
Regions 424 (S18E52) and 427 (N04W16) have only a slight chance of
producing an M-class x-ray flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels.  The
coronal hole driven high-speed stream has passed beyond geoeffective
range.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached very high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled levels for the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Aug 120
Predicted   04 Aug-06 Aug  120/118/118
90 Day Mean        03 Aug 123
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug  015/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Aug  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug  010/015-008/010-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05