:Product: 20030804RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Aug 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 424
(S18E39), with over 700 millionths of white light area, showed some
growth this period, but was otherwise quite stable. Despite this
region's moderate size, it maintains a relatively simple magnetic
structure. New growth was observed in Region 425 (S09E36), but
activity was limited to occasional plage fluctuations and minor
surging. New Region 428 (N16W10) was numbered today. A full halo
CME, first seen on LASCO imagery at 03/0030Z, was likely a backside
event.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
C-class flares are possible from Regions 424 or 425. Region 424 has
slight potential to produce an isolated M-class flare
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed continues
to show a steady decline as the large southern coronal hole rotates
out of a geoeffective position. Occasional periods of southward Bz
account for the active levels. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels through day
one with isolated active periods likely again. A large equatorial
coronal hole will rotate into a geoeffective position by day two and
produce unsettled to minor storm conditions through the remainder of
the period. Isolated major storm periods at higher latitudes are
expected on day three.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Aug 123
Predicted   05 Aug-07 Aug  125/130/135
90 Day Mean        04 Aug 123
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug  010/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug  008/015-015/025-025/035
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/35/45
Minor storm           05/20/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/35/45
Minor storm           05/20/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/10