:Product: 20030805RSGA.txt :Issued: 2003 Aug 05 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2003 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate. Region 424 (S18E26) produced an impulsive M1.7/Sn at 05/1249 UTC and a C1.1 flare at 05/1955 UTC. Region 421 (S07W43) produced a C3.5/Sf flare at 05/0914. Region 424 showed some growth in size and complexity. New Region 429 (S24E55) was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low, with C-class flares possible from Regions 424 or 425, and a slight chance of isolated M-class flares from Region 424. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speeds continued a steady decrease as the coronal hole moves out of geoeffective position. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels on day one. Activity may increase to unsettled to minor storm conditions on days two and three due to a coronal hole moving into geoeffective position. Isolated major storm conditions at high latitudes are possible days two and three. III. Event Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug Class M 30/30/30 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 Aug 131 Predicted 06 Aug-08 Aug 135/140/140 90 Day Mean 05 Aug 123 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug 012/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug 015/020-025/035-020/025 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/45/35 Minor storm 20/25/20 Major-severe storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 30/35/35 Minor storm 25/30/25 Major-severe storm 05/10/10