:Product: 20030806RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Aug 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  Several B-class
flares were observed during the period, including a B8.7 from Region
424.  Region 424 (S18E13) continues to grow in magnetic complexity
to a Beta-Gamma-Delta configuration.  No new regions were numbered
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 424 may produce C-class flares and isolated
M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagentic field was at quiet to severe storm levels.  ACE
satellite data indicated a consistent southward Bz at 06/0200 UTC,
with increasing solar wind speed thereafter, up to a maximum of 600
km/s.  ACE data is consistent with the arrival of a co-rotating
interaction region and associated high speed solar wind from an
equatorial coronal hole moving into geoeffective position.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity for the
next two days is expected to be unsettled to active, with isolated
minor storm conditions, due to the increased solar wind stream from
an associated coronal hole in geoeffective position.  On day three,
geomagnetic activity is expected at quiet to unsettled conditions,
as the coronal hole moves out of geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Aug 129
Predicted   07 Aug-09 Aug  130/130/130
90 Day Mean        06 Aug 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug  006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug  035/045
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug  035/045-025/045-012/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           35/35/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/10