:Product: 20030807RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Aug 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 421 (S07W72)
produced several flares, including a C1.3 at 07/1203 UTC.  Two
C-class flares were produced from an active region just on the other
side of the east limb, the largest a C2.1 at 07/2050 UTC.  These
events were optically correlated with SXI imagery.  Region 424 has
stabilized in size and magnetic complexity.  New Region 430 (S08W13)
was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  C-class flares are possible from Region
421.  In the next few days, active regions just beyond the east limb
should begin to appear earthside, which may produce increased solar
activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels. High
solar wind speeds (up to 700 km/s), associated with a coronal hole in
geoeffective position, are the likely cause of active conditions late
in the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels, with isolated minor storm
conditions possible, for day one, due to continued influence of an
equatorial coronal hole.  On days two and three, as the coronal hole
rotates out of geoeffective position, activity should decrease to
quiet to unsettled conditions.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
Class M    40/45/45
Class X    05/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Aug 137
Predicted   08 Aug-10 Aug  130/130/130
90 Day Mean        07 Aug 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug  034/043
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug  010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug  025/040-012/025-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           35/30/25
Major-severe storm    10/05/05