:Product: 20030808RSGA.txt :Issued: 2003 Aug 08 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Aug 2003 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. A C2 flare occurred at 1436Z from the east limb. Region 424 (S18W14) continues its gradual decay and has simplified to a beta gamma magnetic configuration. Region 425 (S09W17) was the source of a C1 flare at 1636Z. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 424 has the potential for isolated M-class events. Activity from the east limb is likely to continue and possibly increase over the next three days. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels. Periods of southward Bz near - 8 nT produced major and minor storm periods early in the day. Solar wind speed increased from 600 km/s to near 800 km/s at 0600Z and has remained elevated. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. Active to minor storm conditions are possible on day one of the period. On day two and three of the period high speed stream effects are expected to diminish resulting in quiet to unsettled conditions. III. Event Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug Class M 40/40/40 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 08 Aug 133 Predicted 09 Aug-11 Aug 140/140/145 90 Day Mean 08 Aug 124 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 07 Aug 015/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Aug 025/034 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug 020/025-015/015-015/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/25/25 Minor storm 20/15/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 40/35/35 Minor storm 30/20/20 Major-severe storm 10/05/05