:Product: 20030811RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Aug 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Aug 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to very low levels.  Several
impulsive B-class flares comprised today's flare activity.  Region
424 (S18W54) has shown a slight decrease in penumbral coverage today
although it continues to exhibit beta-gamma characteristics.  Region
431 (S13E43) also underwent slight decay and it too appears to
possess a beta-gamma magnetic structure.  No new regions were
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  An isolated M-class flare is possible from Region 424.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels for the first two
days of the period due to a recurrent high speed coronal hole
stream.  Day three should decrease to predominantly unsettled
conditions as the coronal hole wanes.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Aug 129
Predicted   12 Aug-14 Aug  130/125/120
90 Day Mean        11 Aug 126
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Aug  009/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Aug  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug  020/020-020/035-012/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/25
Minor storm           20/20/10
Major-severe storm    10/10/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/45/40
Minor storm           20/35/15
Major-severe storm    10/15/05