:Product: 20030812RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Aug 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to low levels today.  Regions
424 (S18W67) and 431 (S13E30) produced several low level B and
C-class flares during the period.  Region 424 has shown a continued
decay in penumbral coverage yet remains a beta-gamma magnetic class
group.  Region 431 underwent little change today and also retains a
beta-gamma magnetic structure.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels.  A
recurrent high speed coronal hole stream that became effective early
in the period is believed to be responsible for the elevated
conditions.  The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels through day one of
the forecast period due to a recurrent high speed coronal hole
stream.  A decrease to predominantly unsettled with isolated active
conditions are possible by day two as the coronal hole wanes.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Aug 123
Predicted   13 Aug-15 Aug  120/120/125
90 Day Mean        12 Aug 126
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Aug  020/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug  020/035-012/020-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/25/20
Minor storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    10/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/40/25
Minor storm           30/20/10
Major-severe storm    20/10/01