:Product: 20030813RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Aug 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 431 (S13E17)
produced multiple low level B and C-class flares throughout the
period.  A rapid growth in penumbra has nearly quadrupled areal
coverage in the past 24 hours (currently over 500 millionths).  A
delta magnetic structure has also become apparent in the
northwestern portion of spot cluster.  Region 424 (S18W80) has begun
to exit the west limb and produced only B-class flare activity
during the period. Region 432 (S05E71) was newly numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  Region 431 is rapidly becoming capable of
producing an isolated M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.  The
elevated conditions are in response to a favorably positioned
coronal hole.  The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels.  Active conditions
are possible during nighttime hours, especially at high latitudes on
day one of the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Aug 131
Predicted   14 Aug-16 Aug  135/140/140
90 Day Mean        13 Aug 126
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug  017/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Aug  015/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug  012/020-010/012-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/35
Minor storm           10/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/25/40
Minor storm           20/10/20
Major-severe storm    10/01/10