:Product: 20030814RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Aug 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 431 (S13E03)
continues to produce low level C-class flares and is showing a nice
sigmoid feature on SXI imagery. The magnetic delta structure remains
evident in the northwestern quadrant of spot cluster.  The remaining
active regions have been quiescent throughout the period.  Region
433 (S23E18) was newly numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  Region 431 remains capable of producing
M-class flare activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  Sustained
periods of southward Bz during night side regions allowed for active
conditions.  The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels once again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels throughout the interval.  A
brief geoeffective high speed coronal hole stream should make way
for active conditions on the first two days of the forecast period,
returning to predominantly quiet to unsettled levels on day three of
the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Aug 130
Predicted   15 Aug-17 Aug  130/135/130
90 Day Mean        14 Aug 127
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug  015/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug  012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug  015/020-015/015-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/15
Minor storm           15/15/01
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/35/20
Minor storm           20/15/05
Major-severe storm    10/05/01