:Product: 20030815RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Aug 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 431 (S11W13)
exhibited little change in the past twenty-four hours.  This region
continues to produce numerous C-class flares with the largest one a
C7 at 15/0018Z.  Region 431 has decreased slightly in area coverage
but maintains its beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.  Analysis
of Region 433's (S19E10) growth and development indicates that the
trailing and leading spots are two separate regions.  The trailing
spots were numbered as New Region 434 (S23E02).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  Region 431 has the potential for M-class
activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  Two periods of
active conditions was observed.  Solar wind speed remains elevated
near 600 km/s and Bz was mostly northward.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Isolated active conditions are
possible while solar wind speed remain elevated.  Wind speed is
expected to decrease on day one.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Aug 131
Predicted   16 Aug-18 Aug  135/130/130
90 Day Mean        15 Aug 127
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug  012/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug  010/015-008/010-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/25/25
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01