:Product: 20030816RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Aug 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Activity was at low levels.  The largest event was a C4
at 15/2234Z from just beyond the west limb.  Region 431 (S12W26)
continues a slow decay but retains its beta-gamma-delta magnetic
configuration. The delta configuration within the intermediate spots
appears to be simplifying.  New Region 435 (S18W41) was numbered
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Activity is expected to be at low to
moderate levels.  Region 431 has the potential for M-class activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at mostly unsettled to active conditions.
Two periods of isolated active conditions were observed.  Solar wind
speed has decreased to below 500 km/s.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with the chance of
isolated active levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
Class M    35/30/25
Class X    10/05/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Aug 127
Predicted   17 Aug-19 Aug  130/130/125
90 Day Mean        16 Aug 127
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug  009/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug  008/012-008/012-008/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01