:Product: 20030817RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Aug 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Activity was at low levels.  Region 431 (S10W38)
produced a C2 flare at 17/0426Z.  Region 431 continues its slow
decay and has simplified to a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
New Region 436 (N07E69) was numbered today
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with the chance of an isolated M-class event from Region
431.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet early in the day and active late in
the day.  At 1340Z, a shock passed the NASA/ACE spacecraft with a
100 km/s increase in solar wind speed to 540 km/s and an increase in
B-total to over 20 nT.  The Bz component of the IMF remained
northward during this time, resulting in active conditions on Earth.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic  field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one due to residual
effects from the shock.  Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on
day two and day three.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
Class M    30/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Aug 119
Predicted   18 Aug-20 Aug  125/130/125
90 Day Mean        17 Aug 127
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug  007/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Aug  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug  010/012-008/010-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01