:Product: 20030819RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Aug 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 431 produced two
M-class flares, an M2/1n at 19/0759 UTC and an M2/2f at 19/1006 UTC.
The second M-flare was associated with a CME observed in LASCO
images to be directed to the southwest. Region 436 (N08E42) produced
a C5/Sf flare at 19/1826 UTC. Other disk regions were quiet. New
Region 437 (S22W27) emerged on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. A small M-class flares is possible in Region 431 or
436.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from major storm to quiet levels. The
CME-induced disturbance that occurred yesterday appears to have
ended. The field has been at unsettled to quiet levels since about
19/0600 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 48 hours. Active
conditions may start on 22 August in response to a recurrent
high-speed coronal hole stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Aug 117
Predicted   20 Aug-22 Aug  115/110/105
90 Day Mean        19 Aug 127
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug  046/086
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Aug  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug  015/015-015/015-020/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/30
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/50
Minor storm           10/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05