:Product: 20030820RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Aug 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 232 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Aug 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred in the
last 24 hours. Region 431 (S10W84) is quietly rotating around the
west solar limb. Region 436 (N07E29) has changed little since
yesterday.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. C-class activity is possible in Regions 431 and 436.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated
active periods.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active for the next 24 hours. Mostly
active conditions are expected by 22 August in response to a
recurrent high-speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug
Class M    25/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Aug 112
Predicted   21 Aug-23 Aug  110/105/100
90 Day Mean        20 Aug 127
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Aug  018/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Aug  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Aug-23 Aug  015/020-020/025-020/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/30/30
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/50/50
Minor storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05