:Product: 20030822RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Aug 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Most observed activity occurred
in Region 436 (N07E03) which has grown since yesterday and has
become more magnetically complex. Region 440 (S07W06) is also
rapidly growing but has not yet produced significant activity. New
Regions 442 (S12E65) and 443 (N15E09) were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
C-class flares are possible in Regions 436 and 440. There is also a
slight chance of a small M-class flare in Region 436.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels.
The high speed stream induced disturbance continues. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to vary from unsettled to storm levels. The intensity of
the coronal hole disturbance is expected to begin to diminish by the
third day of the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
Class M    10/15/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Aug 121
Predicted   23 Aug-25 Aug  120/120/122
90 Day Mean        22 Aug 127
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug  029/053
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Aug  025/050
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug  025/030-020/030-020/030
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                50/50/50
Minor storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           50/50/50
Major-severe storm    15/15/15