:Product: 20030823RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Aug 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Activity was at very low levels.  Region 441 (N11E19)
produced a B6 flare at 23/0016Z.  Region 441 has shown some growth
in area coverage during the past twenty-four hours.  Region 436
(N07W12) remains relatively unchanged from yesterday.  At around
23/0100Z a 15 degree solar filament lifted off at N09W47.  New
Region 444 (N09E60) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.  Regions 436 and 441 have the potential for
C-class flare and a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels.
Solar wind speed was near 775 km/s for most of the period and Bz was
predominantly southward with peak values near -6 nT.  For a fifteen
hour period today, activity was at minor storm levels with one
period at major storm levels.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels.  Active to minor
storm levels are expected on day one as coronal hole high speed
stream effects continue.  By day two and day three high speed stream
effects should begin to diminish with unsettled to active levels
expected.
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
Class M    15/15/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Aug 120
Predicted   24 Aug-26 Aug  120/122/125
90 Day Mean        23 Aug 127
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug  025/043
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug  045/045
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug  025/035-020/030-020/030
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                50/50/50
Minor storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/45/45
Minor storm           45/40/40
Major-severe storm    20/15/15