:Product: 20030825RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Aug 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Aug 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. There were two C-class flares
observed during the past 24 hours, a C1 at 24/2337 UTC from Region
436 (N07W39) and a C3/1f at 0259 UTC from Region 442 (S13E30). The
C3 flare was long duration and was associated with an erupting
prominence (located near S09E38). The event was followed by an
associated coronal mass ejection which was observed off the
southeast limb in C3 coronagraph data. New Region 445 (N04E38) was
assigned today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low for the next three days. There is a slight chance
for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels.
Today's activity was initially at active levels in response to a
high speed solar wind stream. Activity increased to minor storm
levels from 0600-0900 UTC, but then backed off to mostly unsettled
levels from 0900 through the end of the day. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux was at high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with occasional active periods during the
next two days as the current disturbance persists. A decline to
mostly unsettled is expected on the third day.
III.  Event Probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Aug 117
Predicted   26 Aug-28 Aug  120/120/125
90 Day Mean        25 Aug 127
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Aug  014/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Aug  020/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug  015/015-015/012-012/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    15/15/10