:Product: 20030826RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Aug 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Aug 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Today's only C-class flare was
a C4/1n at 1559 UTC from Region 436 (N08W51). Region 436 is
declining slowly. New Region 445 (N03E24) showed gradual growth
during the past 24 hours but only produced a couple B-class flares.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low for the next three days. There is a slight chance
for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly unsettled to active during
the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic activity continues to be enhanced in
response to a persistent high speed coronal hole wind stream. The
greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with occasional active periods for the next
24 hours. Conditions should decline to  predominantly unsettled
levels for the second and third days.
III.  Event Probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Aug 121
Predicted   27 Aug-29 Aug  120/125/125
90 Day Mean        26 Aug 127
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Aug  016/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Aug  015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug  015/015-012/012-012/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/35
Minor storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/05/05