:Product: 20030827RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Aug 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 239 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Aug 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 436 (N07W60)
continues to decline slowly as it nears the West edge of the solar
disk.  New Region 446 (S22E36) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels.  A
single period of minor storming occurred at 1800 UTC.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with occasional active periods for the next
three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Aug 126
Predicted   28 Aug-30 Aug  125/125/125
90 Day Mean        27 Aug 127
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Aug  008/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Aug  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Aug-30 Aug  012/012-012/012-012/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/05