:Product: 20030828RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Aug 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Three new regions were
numbered today; Region 447 (N16W05), 448 (N19E34), and 449 (S16E69).
None of the regions have shown any considerable activity beyond a
few small C-class flares.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 449 has been slightly active, and has a slight chance of
generating M-class activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels.
Portions of the high speed stream from a departing coronal hole
remain, keeping the solar wind speeds above 420 km/s.  The
interplanetary magnetic field continues to be oriented southward.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels for the next three days.  A
slight chance for minor storming exists for the next 24 hours due a
combination of the continued southward orientation of the
interplanetary magnetic field, and the sustained solar wind speeds
above 400 km/s.
III.  Event Probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Aug 119
Predicted   29 Aug-31 Aug  125/125/125
90 Day Mean        28 Aug 127
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug  009/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Aug  012/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug  012/012-012/012-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/05