:Product: 20030829RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Aug 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Though several regions
currently reside on the visible disk, none show significant
potential for greater than C-class flare activity.  Two new regions;
450 (S18E66) and 451 (S10W65) were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
Regions 450, 449, and 445 have a fair chance of producing C-class
flare activity.  No other activity is expected.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels.  Two
periods of minor storming occurred one at 1200 and another at 1700
UTC.  The solar wind speeds continue to be elevated above 450 km/s,
reaching over 600 km/s toward the end of the period.  This combined
with a sustained southward interplanetary magnetic field polarity
have kept the geomagnetic field elevated.  The greater than 2 MeV
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next two days.
By late on day three, geomagnetic activity should increase to
unsettled to minor storm levels due to a co-rotating interaction
region associated with a coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Aug 116
Predicted   30 Aug-01 Sep  120/120/120
90 Day Mean        29 Aug 127
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug  011/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep  010/012-010/012-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/05