:Product: 20030830RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Aug 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Though several regions
continue to reside on the solar disk, none have demonstrated a
strong level of activity.  A solar filament (near S12W27, 17 deg
extent) collapsed at 2022 UTC, but no material appears to have been
ejected from the sun.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
None of the current active regions shows any signs of greater than
low potential for flare activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels with a
single period of major storming at 0600 UTC.  The interplanetary
magnetic field continues to be oriented southward, and the solar
wind speeds continue to be elevated well above 450 km/s.  During the
storm period, wind speeds were near 650 km/s.  There is some
evidence in the energetic protons measured at the L1 orbit  that a
small interplanetary shock passed at or near the major storming
period.  The greater the 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels for the next 24 to
36 hours.  Near the end of the second day, a co-rotating interaction
region associated with a coronal hole should effect minor to major
storm levels, and continue as a high speed stream for the remainder
of the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Aug 114
Predicted   31 Aug-02 Sep  115/115/115
90 Day Mean        30 Aug 127
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug  012/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Aug  015/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep  012/012-020/020-025/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    05/15/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    05/15/25