:Product: 20030831RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Aug 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 442 (S13W47)
produced a long duration C1 at 31/0622Z.  LASCO imagery indicated a
CME off the southwest limb associated with this flare.  None of the
other regions currently on the visible disk have shown any
significant changes or activity.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  Solar wind
speed has been in steady decline throughout the day and is down to
400 km/s.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels.  Late on day one to
early on day two, a coronal hole high speed stream is expected to
rotate into a geoeffective position.  Active to minor storm levels
are expected on day two and day three.
III.  Event Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Aug 110
Predicted   01 Sep-03 Sep  115/115/115
90 Day Mean        31 Aug 127
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug  012/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep  015/020-025/025-020/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/40/30
Minor storm           15/25/20
Major-severe storm    05/15/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/45/40
Minor storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    10/25/15