:Product: 20030901RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Sep 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  Region 444 (N08W60)
produced a B4.1 at 01/1411 UTC, optically correlated with SXI
imagery. No active regions have shown any significant changes.  A
17-degree filament erupted near N23W60 sometime between 01/0045 and
01/1301 UTC.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.  Regions 448 (N20W20) and 449 (S16E13) may produce
isolated C-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity has been at quiet to active levels, due to the
effects of high speed solar wind streams from a coronal hole moving
into geoeffective position.  Solar wind speed at ACE increased to
500 km/s during the day.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to active levels, with isolated minor storm
conditions, as a coronal hole continues to move into geoeffective
position.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Sep 108
Predicted   02 Sep-04 Sep  115/115/125
90 Day Mean        01 Sep 127
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug  005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep  015/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep  026/030-020/025-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/40/40
Minor storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    20/15/15