:Product: 20030902RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Sep 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  No significant
changes have been noted for the active regions on the visible disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low, with C-class flares possible from Regions 448 (N19W34)
and 450 (S18E14).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active, due to the effects of
high speed solar wind from a geoeffective coronal hole.  Solar wind
speed peaked above 550 km/s during the period, and steadily declined
to 450 km/s.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active. Isolated minor storm conditions are
possible from a high speed solar wind stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Sep 106
Predicted   03 Sep-05 Sep  115/125/130
90 Day Mean        02 Sep 127
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep  011/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep  014/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep  020/025-015/020-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/30/30
Minor storm           40/40/30
Major-severe storm    20/15/10