:Product: 20030903RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Sep 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  No significant
changes have been noted for the active regions on the visible disk.
After further analysis of the magnetic structure surrounding Regions
449 and 450, these regions have been combined into one region
numbered as 450 (S16W07).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low, with C-class flares possible from Region 450 (S16W07).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active, due to the effects of
high speed solar wind from a geoeffective coronal hole.  Solar wind
speed was steady around 500 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active.  Isolated minor storm conditions
days one and two are possible from a high speed solar wind stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Sep 111
Predicted   04 Sep-06 Sep  115/125/130
90 Day Mean        03 Sep 127
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep  012/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep  015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep  015/020-015/015-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           40/30/30
Major-severe storm    15/10/10