:Product: 20030904RSGA.txt :Issued: 2003 Sep 04 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2003 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A single C1 flare was observed at 04/1449Z. The likely source of this small flare was Region 452 (S08W84). New Region 453 (S23W44), numbered today as a D-class beta group, emerged rather quickly over the past 24 hours and exhibited occasional plage intensity fluctuations. New Region 454 (S10E22) was also numbered today. The remaining active regions were either steady or in decay. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. Isolated low C-class flares are likely. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. This weak disturbance is due to a high speed coronal hole stream. Solar wind speeds began the period slightly elevated near 500 km/s, but gradually increased to 650 - 700 km/s by the latter half of the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at unsettled to active levels through day one. The high speed solar wind speed is expected to subside by day 2 resulting in a return to quiet to unsettled levels. III. Event Probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep Class M 05/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 Sep 112 Predicted 05 Sep-07 Sep 115/120/125 90 Day Mean 04 Sep 126 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep 014/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Sep 018/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep 018/020-010/012-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/20/20 Minor storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 35/25/25 Minor storm 15/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/01/01